Friday Brief

Quick update on where things are heading.

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So after five straight weeks of losses, markets finally got what they were waiting for. A WSJ report Tuesday morning said Trump was open to ending the war without requiring the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen. Iran's president followed saying his country was ready to stop fighting, pending security guarantees. Quarter-end rebalancing piled in and you had the best single session for equities since the conflict started. Wednesday held the gains. Thursday complicated things: Trump's address offered escalation without a clear exit, oil spiked above $111, and futures sold off overnight. Then Iran and Oman announced a Hormuz traffic protocol and stocks recovered from the lows. Today markets are closed for Good Friday. The March jobs report dropped this morning: 178,000 jobs added against a 60,000 forecast. Wall Street can't respond until Monday. That number is going to be sitting with everyone all weekend.

U.S. equities posted their first weekly gain after five consecutive weeks of losses, driven by de-escalation signals out of the Middle East. The S&P 500 added 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow advanced roughly 3%. Gains were front-loaded and concentrated in Tuesday's session before carrying into Wednesday. Thursday brought sharp intraday swings in both directions as conflicting geopolitical headlines created competing pressure. Market breadth expanded modestly but both major indexes remain below their 200-day moving averages. The VIX closed the week near 23.

Technology was the decisive winner of the week, rebounding sharply as ceasefire optimism restored appetite for rate-sensitive growth names and AI-infrastructure positioning. Energy held its gains but gave back some war premium as the Oman-brokered Hormuz protocol pulled crude off Thursday's highs. Airlines and travel names underperformed as elevated fuel costs kept margin pressure front of mind, a dynamic that is unlikely to resolve until oil meaningfully retreats.

The crypto market tracked equities closely this week, staging a midweek recovery alongside Tuesday's de-escalation rally before fading as risk appetite cooled into the holiday weekend. Bitcoin held in a tight consolidation range throughout, acting as the primary liquidity anchor for the broader digital asset market. Ethereum attempted to reclaim the key $2,000 level following the prior week's breakdown before struggling to hold above it. Total market cap sits near $2.28 trillion with Bitcoin dominance holding above 58%.

ETHEREUM

Ethereum registered the largest absolute move of the week. The prior Friday's breach below $2,000 was the first time ETH had lost that level since mid-2024, a technically significant break driven by rising real yields, oil-driven inflation pressure, and simultaneous outflows from spot ETH ETFs. The midweek bounce toward $2,000 tracked directly with the equity rally on Iran headlines, then faded again as macro uncertainty reasserted itself heading into the long weekend.

Oil dominated this week in both price action and narrative, swinging sharply in both directions as geopolitical signals conflicted by the hour. Gold held in a narrow range, with safe-haven demand softening slightly on ceasefire optimism while remaining structurally supported by persistent uncertainty and central bank buying. Natural gas stayed elevated on continued LNG supply disruption through the Strait. Copper held a tight range as global growth concerns from the conflict balanced against stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial output data.

Oil's volatile week captured the full range of war premium dynamics in a single session. Trump's Wednesday address pushed WTI to the highest level since the conflict began before the Oman-Iran Hormuz protocol reversed the move within hours. Gold sits at the intersection of competing forces: geopolitical risk premium partially offset by a firmer dollar and reduced rate-cut expectations following a March jobs report that came in at nearly three times consensus. That number reinforces the Fed remains on hold, which keeps the dollar firm and limits upside for non-yielding commodities. Natural gas reflects a structural supply disruption that won't resolve until Hormuz traffic normalizes in a meaningful way. Copper remains a clean barometer of the global growth outlook, and that outlook remains under measurable pressure.

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